{"id":17647,"date":"2017-01-23T10:30:43","date_gmt":"2017-01-23T09:30:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/shekulliagency.com\/?p=17647"},"modified":"2017-01-23T19:49:33","modified_gmt":"2017-01-23T18:49:33","slug":"pese-kercenimet-e-medha-ndaj-njerezimit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/?p=17647","title":{"rendered":"PES\u00cb K\u00cbRC\u00cbNIMET E M\u00cbDHA NDAJ NJER\u00cbZIMIT"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Nga: Eroll Velija<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00eb val\u00ebn e kriz\u00ebs aktuale me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn po p\u00ebrballet njer\u00ebzimi, ndoshta kemi harruar brezat e shumt\u00eb, q\u00eb shpresojm\u00eb t\u00eb vijn\u00eb. Jo ata q\u00eb do vijn\u00eb 200 vjet nga sot, por pas 1000 ose 10000 vjet\u00ebsh. Po p\u00ebrdorim fjal\u00ebn \u201cshpresojm\u00eb\u201d, pasi sot p\u00ebrballemi me risqe \u2013 madje, ekzistenciale \u2013 q\u00eb e k\u00ebrc\u00ebnojn\u00eb me zhdukje njer\u00ebzimin. K\u00ebto risqe nuk jan\u00eb thjesht katastrofa t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, por t\u00eb nj\u00eb natyre q\u00eb mund t\u2019i japin fund historis\u00eb.<\/p>\n

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    \n
  1. LUFTA NUKLEARE<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \"\"<\/a>Edhe pse vet\u00ebm dy arm\u00eb nukleare jan\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur n\u00eb luft\u00eb deri m\u00eb tani, n\u00eb Hiroshima dhe Nagasaki gjat\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore dhe p\u00ebrdorimi i k\u00ebtyre arm\u00ebve nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb n\u00eb pikun e vet si n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn e Ftoht\u00eb, prap\u00ebseprap\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb gabim t\u00eb mendohet se lufta nukleare \u00ebsht\u00eb di\u00e7ka e pamundur. N\u00eb fakt, ajo nuk mund t\u00eb mos jet\u00eb e mundur!<\/p>\n

    Kriza n\u00eb Kub\u00eb ishte shum\u00eb af\u00ebr kthimit n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb nukleare. N\u00ebse llogarisim, nj\u00eb ngjarje e till\u00eb ndodh nj\u00eb her\u00eb n\u00eb 69 vjet dhe nj\u00eb n\u00eb tre her\u00eb ekziston mund\u00ebsia q\u00eb ajo t\u00eb jet\u00eb nukleare. Shansi p\u00ebr nj\u00eb katastrof\u00eb t\u00eb tipit Hiroshima dhe Nagasaki rritet rreth nj\u00eb her\u00eb n\u00eb 200 p\u00ebr \u00e7do vit.<\/p>\n

    Probabiliteti aktual ka ndryshuar n\u00eb var\u00ebsi t\u00eb tensioneve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, por duket e arsyeshme q\u00eb shanset t\u00eb mos jen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta se nj\u00eb n\u00eb 1000 n\u00eb vit. Nj\u00eb luft\u00eb nukleare e plot\u00eb midis fuqive madhore do t\u00eb vriste miliona njer\u00ebz, menj\u00ebher\u00eb ose p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb t\u00eb caktuar dhe kjo do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb katastrof\u00eb e paimagjinueshme. Megjithat\u00eb, k\u00ebto shifra nuk mjaftojn\u00eb p\u00ebr ta shnd\u00ebrruar frik\u00ebn n\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb ekzistenciale. Nj\u00eb arm\u00eb hipotetike e propozuar q\u00eb mund t\u00eb shkaktonte nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb jan\u00eb bombat prej kobalti, por n\u00eb praktik\u00eb, ato jan\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira dhe t\u00eb shtrenjta p\u00ebr t\u2019u nd\u00ebrtuar.<\/p>\n

    K\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi real \u00ebsht\u00eb dimri nuklear, q\u00eb mund t\u00eb karakterizohet nga nj\u00eb ftohje shum\u00ebvje\u00e7are dhe nga tharja e tok\u00ebs. Simulimet e klim\u00ebs tregojn\u00eb se ajo mund t\u00eb frenoj\u00eb agrokultur\u00ebn p\u00ebr nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb bot\u00ebs p\u00ebr vite t\u00eb t\u00ebra. N\u00ebse ndodh nj\u00eb skenar i till\u00eb, miliarda njer\u00ebz do t\u00eb vuajn\u00eb urie.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

      \n
    1. PANDEMIA BIOINXHINIERIKE<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      \"\"<\/a>Pandemia natyrore ka vrar\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr njer\u00ebz sesa luft\u00ebrat. Megjithat\u00eb, pandemia natyrore ka pak gjasa p\u00ebr t\u2019u shnd\u00ebrruar n\u00eb nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim ekzistencial. Zakonisht, njer\u00ebzit jan\u00eb rezistent\u00eb ndaj patogjen\u00ebve dhe pasardh\u00ebsit e t\u00eb mbijetuarve do t\u00eb jen\u00eb m\u00eb rezistenc\u00eb sesa ata.<\/p>\n

      Evolucioni nuk favorizon parazit\u00ebt q\u00eb shfarosin speciet, si\u00e7 mund t\u00eb shpjegohet p\u00ebr shembull, pse sifilizi u shnd\u00ebrrua nga nj\u00eb vras\u00ebs viral n\u00eb nj\u00eb s\u00ebmundje kronike n\u00eb Europ\u00eb. Por, fatkeq\u00ebsisht, tani s\u00ebmundjet jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb \u201cm\u00eb t\u00eb zgjuara\u201d. Nj\u00eb nga shembujt m\u00eb t\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb sesi paraqitja e nj\u00eb gjeni ekstra tek lia e minjve, e b\u00ebri at\u00eb m\u00eb vdekjeprur\u00ebs dhe t\u00eb aft\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb infektuar individ\u00ebt e vaksinuar. Puna shkencore e b\u00ebr\u00eb s\u00eb fundmi me gripin e shpend\u00ebve ka treguar se ka kontigjent\u00eb s\u00ebmundjesh q\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapen n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme.<\/p>\n

      Sot p\u00ebr sot, risku i \u00e7lirimit t\u00eb di\u00e7kaje shkat\u00ebrruese mbetet i ul\u00ebt. Mir\u00ebpo bioteknologjia p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsohet, duke i v\u00ebn\u00eb grupet n\u00eb nj\u00eb rrezik m\u00eb t\u00eb madh. Shumica e pun\u00ebs k\u00ebrkimore n\u00eb drejtim t\u00eb bioarm\u00ebve \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb nga qeverit\u00eb, t\u00eb cilat jan\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekur t\u00eb gjejn\u00eb di\u00e7ka t\u00eb kontrollueshme, pasi, fshirja e njer\u00ebzimit me forca ushtarake nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb aq efektive.<\/p>\n

      Duke marr\u00eb parasysh shifrat aktuale, risku p\u00ebr nj\u00eb pandemi globale nga bioterrorizmi duket shum\u00eb i ul\u00ebt. Por kjo vlen thjesht p\u00ebr bioterrorizmin: qeverit\u00eb kan\u00eb vrar\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr njer\u00ebz sesa terrorist\u00ebt me bioterrorizmin. M\u00eb tep\u00ebr se 400 mij\u00eb jan\u00eb vrar\u00eb gjat\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb programit bioluft\u00eb t\u00eb Japonis\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa teknologjia b\u00ebhet m\u00eb e fuqishme, n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen, patogjen\u00ebt e rreziksh\u00ebm b\u00ebhen gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb leht\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u krijuar.<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

        \n
      1. SUPERINTELIGJENCA<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        \"\"<\/a>Inteligjenca \u00ebsht\u00eb tep\u00ebr e fuqishme. Nj\u00eb rritje e vog\u00ebl n\u00eb aft\u00ebsin\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb zgjidhur problemet dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb koordinuar nj\u00eb grup, \u00ebsht\u00eb arsyeja pse i kemi l\u00ebn\u00eb majmun\u00ebt n\u00eb pyll. Tani, ekzistenca e tyre varet nga vendimet nejr\u00ebzore, jo nga ajo q\u00eb ata b\u00ebjn\u00eb n\u00eb vetvete. T\u00eb qenit i zgjuar \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb avantazh real p\u00ebr njer\u00ebzit dhe organizatat, ndaj b\u00ebhen kaq shum\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje n\u00eb gjetjen e m\u00ebnyrave p\u00ebr p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimin e inteligjenc\u00ebs individuale dhe kolektive: nga drog\u00ebrat q\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsojn\u00eb t\u00eb menduarit deri tek programet (software) e inteligjenc\u00ebs artificiale.<\/p>\n

        Problemi \u00ebsht\u00eb se entitetet inteligjente jan\u00eb t\u00eb mira n\u00eb arritjen e q\u00ebllimeve, por n\u00ebse q\u00ebllimet p\u00ebrcaktohen n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb gabuar, ato mund ta p\u00ebrdorin fuqin\u00eb p\u00ebr arritjen e pasojave katastrofike. Nuk ka arsye t\u00eb mendohet se inteligjenca n\u00eb vetvete do t\u00eb sjell\u00eb di\u00e7ka t\u00eb mir\u00eb dhe morale. N\u00eb fakt, \u00ebsht\u00eb e mundur t\u00eb provohet se tipe t\u00eb caktuara sistemesh superinteligjente nuk do t\u2019i zbatonin rregullat morale.<\/p>\n

        N\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr t\u2019u shpjeguar gj\u00ebrat sistemeve inteligjente artificiale, ne shkojm\u00eb drejt \u00e7\u00ebshtjeve t\u00eb thella praktike dhe filozofike. Vlerat njer\u00ebzore jan\u00eb difuze, komplekse, t\u00eb cilat nuk mund t\u2019i shpjegojm\u00eb si\u00e7 duhet, dhe, edhe n\u00ebse e b\u00ebjm\u00eb, mund t\u00eb mos kuptojm\u00eb gjith\u00eb implikimet q\u00eb ato do t\u00eb ken\u00eb.<\/p>\n

        Inteligjenca e bazuar n\u00eb programe mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet e fuqishme n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb frikshme. Ajo mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzohet n\u00eb m\u00ebnyra t\u00eb ndryshme nga inteligjenca biologjike. Kjo mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb pasoja katastrofike, n\u00ebse q\u00ebllimet nuk p\u00ebrcaktohen si\u00e7 duhet.<\/p>\n

        E pazakonta p\u00ebr superinteligjenc\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb se ne nuk e dim\u00eb n\u00ebse shp\u00ebrthimet e shpejta dhe t\u00eb fuqishme t\u00eb inteligjenc\u00ebs jan\u00eb t\u00eb mundura t\u00eb ndodhin. Ndoshta, qytet\u00ebrimi yn\u00eb si nj\u00eb i t\u00ebr\u00eb synon t\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsoj\u00eb veten me ritmin m\u00eb t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm. Por ka edhe arsye t\u00eb forta p\u00ebr t\u00eb besuar se disa teknologji mund t\u2019i p\u00ebrshpejtojn\u00eb gj\u00ebrat m\u00eb shpejt sesa mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrballohet n\u00eb shoq\u00ebrin\u00eb aktuale.<\/p>\n

         <\/p>\n

          \n
        1. NANOTEKNOLOGJIA<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          \"\"<\/a>Nanoteknologjia i referohet kontrollit mbi l\u00ebnd\u00ebn, me nj\u00eb precizion n\u00eb nivel atomik ose molekular. N\u00eb vetvete, kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb di\u00e7ka e rrezikshme, p\u00ebrkundrazi, p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb lajm t\u00eb mir\u00eb p\u00ebr shumic\u00ebn e aplikacioneve. Problemi \u00ebsht\u00eb se, ashtu si n\u00eb rastin e bioteknologjis\u00eb, rritja e fuqis\u00eb rrit edhe potencialin p\u00ebr abuzime, i cili \u00ebsht\u00eb i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u sfiduar.<\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n

          Problemi i madh nuk jan\u00eb nanomakinerit\u00eb q\u00eb \u201chan\u00eb\u201d gjith\u00e7ka. Kjo do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkonte nj\u00eb dizenjim shum\u00eb t\u00eb zjuar dhe p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb q\u00ebllim. \u00cbsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb q\u00eb ta b\u00ebjm\u00eb nj\u00eb makineri t\u00eb replikohet: biologjia \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e aft\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb drejtim. Ndoshta ndonj\u00eb maniak ia ka dal\u00eb mban\u00eb, por ka shum\u00eb fruta t\u00eb tjera \u201cq\u00eb varen posht\u00eb\u201d n\u00eb pem\u00ebn teknologjike t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrimit.<\/p>\n

          Risku m\u00eb i duksh\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb se prodhimet atomike precize duken ideale p\u00ebr prodhimin e produkteve si arm\u00ebt. N\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb ku \u00e7do qeveri mund t\u00eb \u201cprintoj\u00eb\u201d sasi t\u00eb m\u00ebdha arm\u00ebs automatike dhe gjysm\u00ebautomatike, gara p\u00ebr arm\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet tep\u00ebr e shpejt\u00eb dhe si rrjedhim, e paq\u00ebndrueshme. Arm\u00ebt mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb vogla dhe t\u00eb vijn\u00eb n\u00eb form\u00ebn e \u201chelmit t\u00eb vog\u00ebl\u201d q\u00eb vepron si gaz nervor, ose si sisteme robotike mbikqyr\u00ebse p\u00ebr n\u00ebnshtrimin e popullsis\u00eb, sa ma tep\u00ebr t\u00eb jet\u00eb e mundur. Nuk mund ta gjykojm\u00eb riskun ekzistencial q\u00eb mund t\u00eb na vij\u00eb nga nanoteknolgjia e s\u00eb ardhmes, por ai duket se mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb potencialisht shqet\u00ebsues.<\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n

            \n
          1. T\u00cb PANJOHURAT E PANJOHURA<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            \"\"<\/a>Mund\u00ebsia m\u00eb e pap\u00ebrcaktuar \u00ebsht\u00eb di\u00e7ka atje tej, q\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb vdekjeprur\u00ebse, por q\u00eb ne as e kemi iden\u00eb se \u00e7far\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb. Qet\u00ebsia n\u00eb qiell t\u00eb hapur mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb e dh\u00ebn\u00eb p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb. A \u00ebsht\u00eb mungesa e alien\u00ebve nj\u00eb shenj\u00eb se jeta ose inteligjenca \u00ebsht\u00eb ekstremisht e rrall\u00eb, apo sepse jeta inteligjente priret t\u00eb zhduket? N\u00ebse do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb filt\u00ebr t\u00eb madh t\u00eb s\u00eb ardhmes, ai duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb re edhe nga qytet\u00ebrime t\u00eb tjera. \u00c7far\u00ebdolloj risku qoft\u00eb, ai do t\u00eb jet\u00eb di\u00e7ka thuajse e pashmangshme, madje edhe kur ne t\u00eb b\u00ebhemi t\u00eb vet\u00ebdijsh\u00ebm se ai \u00ebsht\u00eb atje. Ne nuk jemi n\u00eb dijeni p\u00ebr natyr\u00ebn e k\u00ebtyre rreziqeve, por ato mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb prezente.<\/p>\n

            Mund t\u00eb vrisni mendjen pse ndryshimi i klim\u00ebs ose r\u00ebnia e meteor\u00ebve kan\u00eb mbetur jasht\u00eb k\u00ebsaj liste. Ndryshimi klimatik, pavar\u00ebsisht se \u00ebsht\u00eb i friksh\u00ebm, nuk ka gjasa q\u00eb ta b\u00ebj\u00eb planetin t\u00eb pabanuesh\u00ebm. Meteor\u00ebt mund t\u00eb na shfarosin, por duhet t\u00eb jemi v\u00ebrtet pa fat n\u00ebse ndodh kjo.<\/p>\n

            Mesatarisht, gjitar\u00ebt mbijetojn\u00eb p\u00ebr miliona vjet. Ndaj, niveli i zhdukjes natyrore \u00ebsht\u00eb 1 n\u00eb 1 milion\u00eb n\u00eb vit. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt sesa risku i luft\u00ebs nukleare, i cili, pas 70 vjet\u00ebsh, do vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi m\u00eb i madh ndaj ekzistenc\u00ebs son\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb.<\/p>\n

             <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            Nga: Eroll Velija N\u00eb val\u00ebn e kriz\u00ebs aktuale me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn po p\u00ebrballet njer\u00ebzimi, ndoshta kemi harruar brezat e shumt\u00eb, q\u00eb shpresojm\u00eb t\u00eb vijn\u00eb. Jo ata q\u00eb do vijn\u00eb 200…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":17660,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-reflektim"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17647"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17647"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17647\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17661,"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17647\/revisions\/17661"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/17660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17647"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17647"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17647"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}