{"id":40708,"date":"2023-12-22T15:44:53","date_gmt":"2023-12-22T14:44:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/shekulliagency.com\/?p=40708"},"modified":"2023-12-22T15:44:55","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T14:44:55","slug":"e-ardhmja-e-gazes-skenaret-e-pasluftes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/?p=40708","title":{"rendered":"E ardhmja e Gaz\u00ebs: Skenar\u00ebt e pasluft\u00ebs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Autor i shkrimit: Ali Bakir, profesor i \u00e7\u00ebshtjeve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, siguris\u00eb dhe mbrojtjes n\u00eb Universitetin e Katarit, bashk\u00ebpun\u00ebtor n\u00eb Qendr\u00ebn Ibn Khaldon p\u00ebr Shkenca Humane dhe Shkenca Sociale dhe bashk\u00ebpun\u00ebtor i lart\u00eb jorezident n\u00eb Scowcroft ME Security Initiative dhe programet e K\u00ebshillit Atlantik p\u00ebr Lindjen e Mesme<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lufta e Izraelit n\u00eb Gaza n\u00eb vitin 2023 ka ndezur nj\u00eb stuhi spekulimesh p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen e Rripit t\u00eb Gaz\u00ebs dhe se kush do t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb pushtet pasi t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqet pluhuri nga agresioni izraelit. K\u00ebto \u00e7\u00ebshtje nuk jan\u00eb vet\u00ebm vendimtare p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen e af\u00ebrt t\u00eb Gaz\u00ebs dhe palestinez\u00ebve, por gjithashtu kan\u00eb implikime t\u00eb m\u00ebdha p\u00ebr rajonin m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb t\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme dhe p\u00ebrpjekjet diplomatike nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00eb qend\u00ebr t\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsis\u00eb q\u00eb po shpaloset \u00ebsht\u00eb fati i Hamasit, autoriteti “de facto” qeveris\u00ebs n\u00eb Gaza pas zgjedhjeve t\u00eb vitit 2006. Q\u00eb nga vendimi i saj p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkelur me “\u00e7izme” n\u00eb Gaza m\u00eb 27 tetor, zyrtar\u00ebt izraelit\u00eb kan\u00eb pretenduar se q\u00ebllimi \u00ebsht\u00eb “asgj\u00ebsimi” i Hamasit. Megjithat\u00eb, aksioni i mposhtjes s\u00eb Hamasit, n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb i p\u00ebrcaktuar, gj\u00eb q\u00eb e b\u00ebn thuajse t\u00eb pamundur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Megjithat\u00eb, pavar\u00ebsisht nga ky q\u00ebllim i deklaruar, Tel Avivi ka qen\u00eb i z\u00ebsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr q\u00ebllimin e tij p\u00ebr t\u00eb zhvendosur palestinez\u00ebt nga Gaza, shum\u00eb prej t\u00eb cil\u00ebve tashm\u00eb jan\u00eb refugjat\u00eb q\u00eb kan\u00eb ardhur n\u00eb Gaza nga pjes\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshme t\u00eb tokave t\u00eb pushtuara palestineze, n\u00eb shkret\u00ebtir\u00ebn e Sinait n\u00eb Egjipt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pasojat e k\u00ebtij operacioni ushtarak hapin nj\u00eb s\u00ebr\u00eb skenar\u00ebsh, secili me komplekset dhe sfidat e veta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Skenari i kthimit t\u00eb Autoritetit Palestinez (AP)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ky opsion nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb i ri, duke pasur parasysh ndikimin e Izraelit mbi Autoritetin Palestinez (AP) dhe kredibilitetin e ul\u00ebt t\u00eb AP-s\u00eb n\u00eb mesin e palestinez\u00ebve n\u00ebn Mahmud Abbas-in. V\u00ebrtet\u00eb, Izraeli n\u00eb kontinuitet dhe vazhdimisht ka sabotuar dhe minuar autoritetin e AP p\u00ebr t\u00eb nxjerr\u00eb nga tema zgjidhjen me dy shtete duke pretenduar se nuk ka partner adekuat nga pala palestineze.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Administrata e Bidenit n\u00eb SHBA, p\u00ebr shembull, shprehu d\u00ebshir\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb shoh kthimin e “rigjall\u00ebruar” t\u00eb Autoritetit Palestinez n\u00eb pushtet n\u00eb Gaza. Megjithat\u00eb, prakticiteti dhe pranueshm\u00ebria e nj\u00eb propozimi t\u00eb till\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb diskutueshme. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, formula p\u00ebr “rigjall\u00ebrimin” \u00ebsht\u00eb e paqart\u00eb dhe mund t\u00eb ndikohet nga fuqit\u00eb e huaja p\u00ebr t\u00eb instaluar p\u00ebrfundimisht nj\u00eb “kukull izraelite” n\u00eb krye t\u00eb Autoritetit Palestinez. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb drejtim, vitet e fundit ka pasur disa plane p\u00ebr t\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebsuar Mahmud Abbas-in me Mohammad Dahlan-in. Pas invazionit izraelit t\u00eb Gaz\u00ebs, “The Economist” publikoi nj\u00eb histori p\u00ebr Dahlan-in q\u00eb supozohej ta promovonte at\u00eb si opsion p\u00ebr Gaz\u00ebn e pasluft\u00ebs. Megjithat\u00eb, Dahlan mohoi se e donte k\u00ebt\u00eb rol. Shumica e palestinez\u00ebve gjithsesi e shohin Dahlan-in si nj\u00eb element t\u00eb korruptuar izraelit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Q\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebria e Hamasit dhe popullariteti n\u00eb rritje<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hamasi u themelua n\u00eb vitin 1987 pas shp\u00ebrthimit t\u00eb Intifad\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Palestineze kund\u00ebr pushtimit izraelit. Grupi mbetet i rr\u00ebnjosur thell\u00eb n\u00eb shoq\u00ebrin\u00eb dhe politik\u00ebn palestineze. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kuptim, duket joreale t\u00eb pritet q\u00eb Hamasi t\u00eb \u00e7rr\u00ebnjoset plot\u00ebsisht. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, pas luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Izraelit kund\u00ebr palestinez\u00ebve n\u00eb Gaza, popullariteti i Hamasit \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht pas ngjarjeve t\u00eb fundit, duke sugjeruar se vazhdon t\u00eb ket\u00eb ndikim dhe mb\u00ebshtetje t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme brenda shoq\u00ebris\u00eb palestineze si nj\u00eb forc\u00eb rezistence kund\u00ebr pushtimit izraelit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00eb nj\u00eb skenar t\u00eb till\u00eb, p\u00ebrfshirja e mundshme e Hamasit n\u00eb nj\u00eb Autoritet Palestinez t\u00eb rigjall\u00ebruar mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb e realizueshme n\u00ebse Marwan al-Barghouthi, udh\u00ebheq\u00ebs nacional\u00e7lirimtar i burgosur nga Izraeli q\u00eb nga viti 2002, merr rolin udh\u00ebheq\u00ebs n\u00eb Organizat\u00ebn p\u00ebr \u00c7lirimin e Palestin\u00ebs dhe Autoritetin Palestinez. Kjo do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkonte njohjen e menj\u00ebhershme nga SHBA-ja dhe Evropa e nj\u00eb shteti t\u00eb lir\u00eb, t\u00eb pavarur dhe sovran palestinez si dhe zbatimin efektiv t\u00eb tij.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Pjes\u00ebmarrja e huaj<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gjat\u00eb luft\u00ebs n\u00eb vazhdim t\u00eb Izraelit kund\u00ebr palestinez\u00ebve, disa aktor\u00eb kan\u00eb shqyrtuar iden\u00eb e nj\u00eb pranie ushtarake nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare ose arabe n\u00eb Gaza pas luft\u00ebs. Qeverit\u00eb arabe e hodh\u00ebn posht\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb propozim, duke theksuar se arab\u00ebt nuk do t\u00eb hynin n\u00eb prapavij\u00ebn e tankeve izraelite. Ide t\u00eb tjera mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb diskutuar me dyer t\u00eb mbyllura, si p\u00ebr shembull nj\u00eb rol potencial p\u00ebr qeverit\u00eb e Marr\u00ebveshjes s\u00eb Abrahamit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Marr\u00ebveshja e normalizimit q\u00eb SHBA-ja dhe Izraeli kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb me vendet islame quhet “Pakti i Abrahamit”, sepse figura biblike Abraham konsiderohet babai i tre feve kryesore monoteiste: Judaizmit, Krishterimit dhe Islamit).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disa dit\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, kryeministri izraelit Benjamin Netanyahu, gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb paneli n\u00eb Parlamentin izraelit (Knesset) tha se Arabia Saudite dhe Emiratet e Bashkuara Arabe (EBA) do t\u00eb financojn\u00eb rind\u00ebrtimin e Rripit t\u00eb Gaz\u00ebs pas luft\u00ebs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Megjithat\u00eb, EBA tha se do t\u00eb kusht\u00ebzoj\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjen financiare dhe politike p\u00ebr rind\u00ebrtimin e Gaz\u00ebs me p\u00ebrparimin e nism\u00ebs s\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur nga SHBA-ja drejt zgjidhjes me dy shtete. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00fcrkiye ka propozuar nj\u00eb sistem garancish n\u00eb t\u00eb cilin vendet nga rajoni dhe m\u00eb gjer\u00eb veprojn\u00eb si garantues si p\u00ebr palestinez\u00ebt ashtu edhe p\u00ebr izraelit\u00ebt. Presidenti turk Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan tha: “Jemi gati t\u00eb b\u00ebhemi nj\u00eb nga garantuesit e pal\u00ebs palestineze me pranin\u00eb ton\u00eb humanitare, politike dhe ushtarake. Ftojm\u00eb vendet me vullnet t\u00eb fort\u00eb t\u00eb marrin n\u00eb konsiderat\u00eb ofert\u00ebn ton\u00eb”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Problemi me t\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto forma t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshirjes \u00ebsht\u00eb fakti se asnj\u00eb vend, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht SHBA-ja dhe vendet evropiane, nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb gatshme t\u00eb pengojn\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb efektive Izraelin, i cili ka rekord t\u00eb mosrespektimit t\u00eb rezolutave t\u00eb K\u00ebshillit t\u00eb Sigurimit t\u00eb Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara (KS-OKB), q\u00eb ta mbaj p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebs ose t\u00eb vendos pasoja kur shkel ndonj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje konkrete.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Pushtimi i drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb ushtarak i Gaz\u00ebs nga Izraeli<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00eb vitin 2005, Izraeli pretendoi se i kishte dh\u00ebn\u00eb fund okupimit t\u00eb Gaz\u00ebs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Megjithat\u00eb, kjo deklarat\u00eb mashtruese binte ndesh me realitetin n\u00eb terren, ku Izraeli vazhdoi t\u00eb kishte “kontroll efektiv” mbi Gaz\u00ebn, i cili, nga ana tjet\u00ebr, p\u00ebrb\u00ebn ligj\u00ebrisht pushtim “pa \u00e7izme” n\u00eb terren. Pas pushtimit tok\u00ebsor t\u00eb Gaz\u00ebs n\u00eb tetor, Izraeli tregoi se synonte t\u00eb kishte kontroll t\u00eb plot t\u00eb siguris\u00eb mbi Gaz\u00ebn. Ky skenar mund t\u00eb manifestohet n\u00eb disa forma, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb zvog\u00eblimin e sip\u00ebrfaqes s\u00eb Gaz\u00ebs dhe popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb saj.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb drejtim, Izraeli thuhet se ka hedhur iden\u00eb e krijimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb zone tampon midis Gaz\u00ebs dhe Izraelit nga veriu n\u00eb jug p\u00ebr t\u00eb parandaluar sulmet e “befasishme” n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen ndaj Izraelit. Ky propozim do t\u00eb ishte pjes\u00eb e nj\u00eb procesi me tre nivele q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshin “shkat\u00ebrrimin e Hamasit, \u00e7militarizimin e Gaz\u00ebs dhe deradikalizimin e enklav\u00ebs”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Izraeli i ka provuar k\u00ebto skema edhe m\u00eb par\u00eb, si n\u00eb Palestin\u00eb ashtu edhe n\u00eb Liban, dhe d\u00ebshtuan mjerisht, sepse p\u00ebr sa koh\u00eb q\u00eb ka pushtim, do t\u00eb ket\u00eb rezistenc\u00eb, t\u00eb cil\u00ebn ata mund ta tolerojn\u00eb. Sekretari i P\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm i L\u00ebvizjes s\u00eb Nism\u00ebs Komb\u00ebtare Palestineze (PNI) Mustafa Barghouthi pohon: “Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb arsyeja pse q\u00ebllimi i Netanyahut \u00ebsht\u00eb pastrimi etnik i njer\u00ebzve. Ai d\u00ebshiron t\u00eb ket\u00eb kontroll ushtarak mbi Gaz\u00ebn pa njer\u00ebz”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pavar\u00ebsisht nga skenar\u00ebt e pasluft\u00ebs p\u00ebr Gaz\u00ebn, \u00ebsht\u00eb e domosdoshme t\u00eb njihet konteksti m\u00eb i gjer\u00eb i konfliktit izraelito-palestinez, i cili p\u00ebrfshin \u00e7\u00ebshtjet e okupimit, zgjerimin e vendbanimeve dhe mohimin e vet\u00ebvendosjes palestineze.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paqja e q\u00ebndrueshme varet nga ajo q\u00eb Izraeli t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebsi p\u00ebr krimet kund\u00ebr njer\u00ebzimit, t\u00eb ndalohet mosnd\u00ebshkimi q\u00eb i ofron SHBA-ja dhe disa vende evropiane dhe Tel Avivi t’i n\u00ebnshtrohet ligjit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pra, n\u00ebse lufta aktuale izraelite kund\u00ebr palestinez\u00ebve nuk p\u00ebrfundon me nj\u00eb shtet t\u00eb lir\u00eb, sovran dhe t\u00eb pavarur palestinez, ne duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitemi p\u00ebr m\u00eb t\u00eb keqen. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anadolu Agency <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Autor i shkrimit: Ali Bakir, profesor i \u00e7\u00ebshtjeve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, siguris\u00eb dhe mbrojtjes n\u00eb Universitetin e Katarit, bashk\u00ebpun\u00ebtor n\u00eb Qendr\u00ebn Ibn Khaldon p\u00ebr Shkenca Humane dhe Shkenca Sociale dhe bashk\u00ebpun\u00ebtor i…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":40441,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinionanaliza"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40708"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=40708"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40708\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40709,"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40708\/revisions\/40709"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/40441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=40708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=40708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alb.shekulliagency.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=40708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}